Projections of New Technology Utilization Scales in Coal Industry for the Period until 2040

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2019-05-10-16
Yu.A.Plakitkin, L.S.Plakitkina, K.I.Dyachenko
The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, The Russian Federation
Russian Mining Industry №5 / 2019 pp.10-16

Читать на русскоя языкеAbstract: The Fourth Industrial Revolution which is currently taking place in many countries and the Digital Economy in the Russian Federation Programme will have a strong impact on the development of the Coal Industry for the period until 2040. The main trends in these projects include digitalisation, introduction of the Industrial Internet in the Coal Industry, development of unmanned robotic technologies that are based on industrial cyber physical systems in coal mining and processing. The study involved the development of methodological provisions to project the new technology utilization scales in the mining processes.

The performed model calculations were used to plot dependencies for each of the advanced technologies that establish the minimum and maximum boundaries of their utilization during the projection period for the innovative and conservative scenarios.

The following mining processes were studied: exploration and mine planning, coal production, coal and waste processing; transportation of coal, waste rock and goods. The paper provides an example of forecasting dynamics of the utilization share of opencast and underground mining technologies in the Russian Coal Industry. Forecast corridors (share of production) for employment of new technologies are presented for coal mining applications. Comparison is made of the utilization scales of the technologies that are critical for the technological development of the Coal Industry with respect to the basic mining processes.

A forecast of labour productivity growth in the Russian Coal Industry is provided as a function of the new technology utilization scale. Forecasting dynamics of possible scales in utilization of the industry’s technologies, differentiated with respect to both the mining processes and the development scenarios in the industry, makes it possible to create technologyoriented ‘beacons’ for coal mining companies. These ‘beacons’ should help the coal producers and the state regulator to control the rates and trends of the required technological transformations that would meet the pace and the degree of the global innovation process.

Keywords: coal, coal mining, coal processing, forecast corridor, scenario option, process signals, coal mining industry, coal sector, digitalisation, digital economics, forecasting dynamics

For citation: Plakitkin Yu.A., Plakitkina L.S., Dyachenko K.I. Projections of New Technology Utilization Scales in Coal Industry for the Period until 2040. Russian Mining Industry. 2019;(5):10–16. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.30686/1609-9192-2019-4-10-16.

Article info

Received: 27.05.2019
Reviewed: 19.06.2019, 12.07.2019
Accepted: 21.07.2019

Information about the author

Yury A. Plakitkin – Doctor of Science (Economics), Full Professor, Member of Academy of Mining Sciences, Member of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Head of Centre for Innovative Development of Power Industries, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, The Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Lyudmila S. Plakitkina – Candidate of Science (Engineering), Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Head of Centre for Studies of Global and Russian Coal Mining Industry, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, The Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Konstantin I. Dyachenko – Senior Research Fellow at Centre for Studies of Global and Russian Coal Mining Industry, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, The Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

References

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