Export potential and decarbonization of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex amid the transformation of the world economy

O.I. Dontsova, M.I. Volkhonova, I.N. Abanina, A.A. Novitskaya, Yu.O. Ivanova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Russian Mining Industry №4/ 2026 p. 93-100

Abstract: The study examines the export potential and decarbonization path of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex amid the transformation of the world economy and emergence of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Its relevance is defined by the deepening crisis of the core subsectors in 2023–2025: with coal production stabilizing at about 440 million tonnes, exports recovered to 211 million tonnes by the end of 2025 (+7.5% compared to 2024), yet the net financial result of the coal industry went down from a profit of RUB 374.7 billion in 2023 to losses of RUB 112.6 billion in 2024 and RUB 408 billion in 2025 (a 3.6-fold increase in losses), while the share of profitable companies fell from 68.5% to 33.9%. Crude steel output declined from 76.0 million tonnes in 2023 to 67.8 million tonnes in 2025 (a seven-year low) against the world production of 1,849 million tonnes (−2%). The hypothesis is that the competitiveness of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex is determined not by the volume of physical supplies, but by the capacity to reduce the specific carbon intensity of products and to diversify sales markets. The objective is to justify directions for adapting the export-oriented Russian mining and metallurgical complex to decarbonization of the world economy on the basis of production, export, financial, and emission indicators. The methods applied include comparative subsector analysis, industry benchmarking of the carbon intensity, and indicator analysis of the emission load. It was established that the carbon intensity of blast-furnace–and- oxygen converter steelmaking (2.30 t of CO2-eq./t) exceeds the world average (1.85) by 24% and it is 1.53 times higher than the direct reduction using the electric-arc furnace method (1.50); with the CBAM certificate price of EUR 75.36/t of CO2 (Q1 2026) and full coverage of the emissions (by 2034) the direct carbon load will reach EUR 139–173 per tonne of steel; ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy together generate 28% of the Russian greenhouse gas emissions. Three adaptation directions are justified, i.e. diversification of markets and logistics, technological reduction of the carbon intensity, and alignment of the national carbon units system with the export agenda.

Keywords: mining and metallurgical complex, decarbonization, carbon intensity, carbon border adjustment mechanism, CBAM, coal industry, ferrous metallurgy, world economy

For citation: Dontsova O.I., Volkhonova M.I., Abanina I.N., Novitskaya A.A., Ivanova Yu.O. Export potential and decarbonization of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex amid the transformation of the world economy. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(4):93–100. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-4-93-100

Information about the article

Received: 18.03.2026

Received after peer review: 28.05.2026

Accepted for publication: 10.06.2026

Information about the authors

Olesya I. Dontsova – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Economic Theory, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7924-2111; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Mariya I. Volkhonova – Cand. Sci. (Sociol.), Associate Professor of the Department of International Business, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2706-2984; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Irina N. Abanina – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0449-5894; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alla A. Novitskaya – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of International Business, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6705-7296; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yuliya O. Ivanova – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of Operational and Industry Management, Faculty of Higher School of Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1272-3244; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

References

1. Pazdnikova N.P., Neroslov A.D., Bobkov A.V. Analysing the state and prospects of development of the coal industry in Russia. Ugol’. 2025;(6):58–61. (In Russ.) Available at: https://ugolinfo.ru/artpdf/RU2506058.pdf (accessed: 09.03.2026).

2. Muzalyov S.V., Abdikeev N.M., Obolenskaya L.V. Improving the system of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of Russia’s industrial policy under sanctions pressure. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2025;29(4):6–18. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-4-6-18

3. Fedorova E.A., Nevredinov A.R., Melikhov K.S., Yashchenko A.I. Import substitution impact on growth of production of mineral products and metallurgy: short-term and long-term forecasting of basic sectors of the national economy. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2023;27(6):17–30. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-6-17-30

4. Perskaya V.V. Greening of industrialization as a new stage in the development of the global economy. Economics, Taxes & Law. 2025;18(2):19–30. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2025-18-2-19-30

5. Sokolov I.A., Suchkova O.V., Kazakova Yu.E., Repkina E.V. A study of fiscal vulnerability in resource-rich countries: a methodology for accounting for price shocks on exported resources. Terra Economicus. 2025;23;2: 77–91. https://doi.org/10.18522/2073-6606-2025-23-2-77-91

6. Sheveleva O.B., Kumaneeva M.K., Zonova O.V., Chekanova V.S. Ecointensity as an indicator of economic growth quality: industry aspect. Ugol’. 2025;(3):88–91. (In Russ.) Available at: https://ugolinfo.ru/artpdf/RU2503088.pdf (accessed: 09.03.2026).

7. Karaulov V.M., Karanina E.V., Gadzhiev N.G. Assessment of environmental efficiency in achieving sustainable development goals of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. South of Russia: Ecology, Development. 2025;20(2):185–194. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18470/1992-1098-2025-2-15

8. Petrov I.V., Novoselova I.Yu. ESG score calculation procedure: a case-study of ALROSA company with state participation. Gornyi Zhurnal. 2024;(8):39–44. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17580/gzh.2024.08.06

9. Novoselova I.Yu., Novoselov A.L., Petrov I.V. Modeling of the development of logistics processes in the railway transportation of coal. Ugol’. 2025;(8):65–70. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2025-8-65-70

10. Materova E.S., Aksenova Zh.A., Sharafullina R.R., Galimova G.A., Shilov M.L. Digitalization of operations in the Russian mining companies. Ugol’. 2024;(11):117–121. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.ugolinfo.ru/artpdf/RU2411117.pdf (accessed: 09.03.2026).

11. Zhdaneev O.V., Vlasova I.M. Digital transformation of the coal industry. Ugol’. 2023;(1):62–69. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2023-1-62-69

12. Marinin M.A., Marinina O.A., Rakhmanov R.A. Methodological approach to assessing influence of blasted rock fragmentation on mining costs. Gornyi Zhurnal. 2023;(9):28–34. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17580/gzh.2023.09.04

13. Spitsyn V.V., Mikhalchuk A.A., Chistyakova N.O., Tatarnikova V.V., Akerman E.A. Regional innovations influence on the ecological footprint of the Russian Federation territories: case of the Siberia and Volga regions. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Assets Engineering. 2024;335(3):240–252. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2024/3/4464

14. Kaledina N.O. Training of mining engineers: content and quality. Ugol’. 2023;(11):23–30. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2023-11-23-30

15. Gruzina Y.M., Pulyaeva V.N., Ponomareva M.A., Babanin А.O. Career guidance process improvement as a tool for development of potential of youth. European Journal of Contemporary Education. 2023;12.(2): 434-450. https://doi.org/10.13187/ejced.2023.2.434

16. Pulyaeva V.N., Ivanova I.A., Ponomareva M.A., Stolyarova A.N. Development of a chat bot algorithm to improve the efficiency of the process of organizing corporate training. European Journal of Contemporary Education. 2024;13(1):211–221. https://doi.org/10.13187/ejced.2024.1.211