Analysis of the diagnostic value of rock burst hazard criteria
V.V. Nosov1, E.V. Grigoriev1, V.G. Merzlyakov2
1 Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
2 Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow, Russian Federation
Russian Mining Industry №4S/ 2026 p. 61-68
Abstract: Predicting rock bursts with increasing mining depths and conditions becoming more complex is a pressing issue. This study aims to select the rock burst hazard criteria that take into account the impact of destabilizing factors while enabling long-term forecasting, and to assess their diagnostic value. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the statistical parameters of acoustic emission, indicators related to damage accumulation, joint use of combined acoustic emission techniques in conjunction with other control and geomechanical monitoring methods, and the use of neural network algorithms. It has been established that the statistical criteria presented in the literature are sensitive to the destabilizing factors, require a long and labor-intensive training experiment, and can be used only for short-term forecasting. A concentration-kinetic indicator, W0AE, is proposed and justified. It demonstrates resistance to the destabilizing factors and is statistically significant. Criteria are proposed for assessing rock mass sections by their degree of burst hazard for local forecasting.
Keywords: rock burst prediction, acoustic emission, geomechanical monitoring, rock burst hazard, acoustic emission diagnostics
For citation: Nosov V.V., Grigoriev E.V., Merzlyakov V.G. Analysis of the diagnostic value of rock burst hazard criteria. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(4S):61–68. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-4S-61-68
Article info
Received: 12.05.2026
Revised: 29.07.2026
Accepted: 13.08.2026
Information about the authors
Viktor V. Nosov – Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Professor of the Department of Metrology, Instrumentation and Quality Management, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1849-0450
Egor V. Grigoriev – Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Leading Engineer, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1090-6629
Viktor G. Merzlyakov – Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Professor of the Department of Industrial, Civil and Underground Construction, Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0647-259X
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