Method for prediction of the density of released seismic energy for Solikamsk-1 mine at the Upper Kama potash deposit

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2023-S1-76-82

Zlobina T.V., Shulakov D.Yu. Mining Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russian Federation Russian Mining Industry №1S / 2023 р. 76-82

Abstract: The issue of predicting seismic activity at mines is relevant for many industrial areas of the world. Seismic events recorded in different deposits are the result of combinations of geological and mining factors. This article describes characteristic of microseismic activity at the Solikamsk-1 mine of the Upper Kama potash salt deposit (Perm Territory, Russia). The collected seismic material, obtained over more than 25 years of monitoring observations, is the foundation for identifying the spatial and temporal characteristics. This information is the basis of the concept for seismic prediction at the mine. The article represents the stages of predicting one of the seismic parameters, i.e. the density of seismic energy release – Es. The selected stages allow carrying out verification and approbation of the mathematical model. The correlation and regression analyzes showed that this algorithm makes it possible to predict the maximum level of seismicity throughout the mine, where mining parameters are identical. The result of this methodology is the prediction map for 2023 for the Solikamsk-1 mine. This map shows zones with the value of the Es parameter exceeding 20 J/100 m2, which are the most geodynamically hazardous areas. Appropriate measures to reduce the intensity of the deformation processes need to be implemented in these zones.

Keywords: potash mine, seismic monitoring, induced seismicity, prediction model, mining parameters, spatial analysis, prediction, correlation analysis, regression analysis

Acknowledgements: The research was carried out with the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Education of the Russian Federation (project No. 075-03-2021-374 on December 29, 2020, reg. No. 122012000401-7)

For citation: Zlobina T.V., Shulakov D.Yu. Method for prediction of the density of released seismic energy for Solikamsk-1 mine at the Upper Kama potash deposit. Russian Mining Industry. 2023;(1 Suppl.):76–82. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2023-S1-76-82

Article info

Received: 30.12.2022

Revised: 23.01.2023

Accepted: 25.01.2023

Information about the authors

Tatiana V. Zlobina – Engineer, Mining Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2626-6355; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Denis Yu. Shulakov – Head of Laboratory, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Mining Institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Perm, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5673-8819; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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