Analysis and commercial evaluation of oil reserves using the statistical method

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2025-3-188-194

Читать на русскоя языкеA.R. Deryaev
State Concern “Тurkmengaz”, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
Russian Mining Industry №3 / 2025 p.188-194

Abstract: The research was performed to study the possibility of using the statistical method for oil reserves evaluation based on the case study of the Goturdepe field. The statistical method was applied to analyze the volume of oil produced from wells and to define the degree and the direction of relationships between the variables using correlation tables. A moving average was used to predict the projected values in order to avoid distortions in the analysis, which allowed for more accurate evaluations and a better understanding of the oil field characteristics. A graph that helps to define the dynamics of changes in the flow rate of the new wells in relation to their average production in the field was designed to determine the initial flow rates of the new and reworked wells, as well as to evaluate how the new well flow rates are related to the average production rate of the site and the changes in this relationship over time. Data on the correlation between the flow rates of the new wells at different dates served as a basis for analyzing and forecasting their performance and their contribution to the total production volume. One of the key findings of the study is the confirmation that not only the current production, but also the future production forecasts are important. This helps to optimize the field development and make informed investment decisions. Given the complex geological nature of the region, the use of a statistical method is crucial to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the reserve evaluations. This approach allows taking into account such factors as the differences in the flow rates and geologic characteristics, and helps to make more accurate evaluations and informed decisions in managing oil recovery. The efficiency of this method has been confirmed when evaluating oil reserves of the Goturdepe field.

Keywords: field operation, recoverable reserve, geological structure, cumulative production, extrapolation, development

For citation: Deryaev A.R. Analysis and commercial evaluation of oil reserves using the statistical method. Russian Mining Industry. 2025;(3):188–194. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2025-3-188-194

Article info

Received: 01.03.2025

Revised: 10.04.2025

Accepted: 14.04.2025

Information about the author

Annaguly R. Deryaev – Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Chief Research Associate, The State Concern “Тurkmengaz”, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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