A comparative analysis of economic strategies for development of the critical mineral mining in the context of mineral resource security
S.A. Tronin, V.B. Frolova, M.P. Lazarev, A.A. Gamilovskaya
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Russian Mining Industry №2/ 2026 p. 104-112
Abstract: The global demand for critical minerals demonstrated sustained growth in 2024: lithium consumption increased by 30%, while nickel, cobalt, graphite, and the rare earth elements went up by 6–8%. At the same time, the geographic concentration of refining also intensified: the average market share of the top three refining nations for the key energy minerals rose from 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024, with approximately 90% of the supply growth secured by a single country, i.e. Indonesia for nickel and China for all the other minerals. This study presents a comparative technical and economic analysis of the development strategies for mining the critical mineral that were adopted in the leading mineral resource countries (Russia, the EU, the USA, and China), assessing their efficiency in ensuring the mineral resource security. The research makes a hypothesis that the differences in economic models of mineral resource management, i.e. the protectionist, the diversification-oriented, integrative, and the extensive import-substituting concepts, generate heterogeneous mineral resource risk profiles that can be quantitatively measured using the supply concentration indices and import dependency ratios. The methodological framework comprises comparative economic analysis, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index calculation for six key energy mineral markets, and the indexbased assessment of fiscal vulnerability in the resource-dependent economies, and the input-output analysis to determine the macroeconomic impact of the price shocks. The empirical base includes data from the IEA, USGS, Eurostat, and Rosnedra for 2020–2025. The results revealed that the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index for the rare earth element refining reached 8,310 points in 2024, corresponding to extremely high concentration; Russia’s import dependency on the strategic minerals, i.e. manganese, chromium, titanium, lithium, stands at 70–80%; the EU has established domestic benchmarks of 10% of mining, 40% of processing, and 25% recycling by 2030; investment in mining critical minerals grew by only 5% in 2024 versus 14% in the previous year, with real growth adjusted for inflation standing at merely 2%. The practical value of the study lies in identifying the quantitative efficiency thresholds for different strategies and in developing recommendations aimed at reducing the mineral resource vulnerability.
Keywords: critical minerals, mineral resource security, Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, import dependency, economic strategy, supply chain diversification, mining industry
For citation: Tronin S.A., Frolova V.B., Lazarev M.P., Gamilovskaya A.A. A comparative analysis of economic strategies for development of the critical mineral mining in the context of mineral resource security. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(2):104–112. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-2-104-112
Article info
Received: 10.01.2026
Revised: 19.02.2026
Accepted: 04.03.2026
Information about the authors
Sergey A. Tronin – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Investment Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0332-2430; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Victoria B. Frolova – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Investment Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Mikhail P. Lazarev – Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Investment Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Anna A. Gamilovskaya – Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Investment Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2964-7276; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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