Parametric assessment of the probability of regional-scale emergency events in underground mining of readily soluble mineral raw materials

E.R. Kovalsky, G.B. Pospehov, A.V. Kholmskiy, Ch.B. Kongar-Syuryun, N.A. Mironov
Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation Russian Mining Industry №4S/ 2026 p. 105-112

Abstract: The article presents data on regional-scale emergency events in underground mining of readily soluble mineral raw materials, their consequences, and an assessment of their occurrence frequency. Emergency events are classified according to two scenarios: hydrogeological, i.e. uncontrolled mine flooding accompanied by rock dissolution through filtration channels in the water-retaining strata; and geomechanical, i.e. a large-scale collapse of load-bearing elements of the mining system, accompanied by seismodynamic manifestations and formation of day surface subsidences. A retrospective analysis of the emergency event frequency was performed based on the information on more than 340 mines worldwide. It has been established that despite improvements in the technical monitoring tools and regulatory requirements, the specific frequency of emergency events has not decreased in recent decades and remains at an average value of 0.09, while the probability of an accident over the average mine service life (40 years) exceeds 0.3. Reliability of the ‘mine–rock mass’ geomechanical system was modelled using the Weibull distribution with parameters β = 1.25 and η = 80 years, which confirms the steady “aging” of the system and the failure rate increasing over time. Based on certain parameters, the authors make a conclusion that the conventional regulatory and technical approaches are insufficient and they propose a way of their improvement by incorporating probabilistic risk assessments of the design decisions.

Keywords: emergency events, readily soluble mineral raw materials, underground mining, potash mines, salt mines, mine–rock mass system, Weibull distribution, probabilistic risk assessment

Acknowledgements: This research was conducted under Government Assignment FSRW-2026-0003, “Study of the processes of integrated development of the Earth’s interior and deep processing of geological resources”.

For citation: Kovalsky E.R., Pospehov G.B., Kholmskiy A.V., Kongar-Syuryun Ch.B., Mironov N.A. Parametric assessment of the probability of regional-scale emergency events in underground mining of readily soluble mineral raw materials. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(4S):105–112. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-4S-105-112

Article info

Received: 01.06.2026

Revised: 29.07.2026

Accepted: 04.08.2026

Information about the authors

Evgeny R. Kovalsky – Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor, Department of Underground Mining, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6656-9377

Georgy B. Pospehov – Cand. Sci. (Geol.&Mineral.), Associate Professor, Department of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9090-5150

Alexey V. Kholmskiy – Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Lecturer, Department of Underground Mining, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1311-0949

Cheynesh B. Kongar-Syuryun – Postgraduate Student, Department of Underground Mining, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6097-905X; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita A. Mironov – Postgraduate Student, Department of Underground Mining, Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation

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