Assessment of the economic efficiency of investment projects for the development of solid mineral deposits

Vitaly A. Matchinov, Irina G. Moiseeva, Natalia N. Gubernatorova, Irina V. Drobysheva, Oksana M. Orlovtseva
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Mining Industry Journal (Gornaya Promyshlennost) №5/ 2026 p. 190-199

Summary: The growing capital intensity and extending periods for the development of solid mineral (SM) deposits along with high geological and economic uncertainties call for an adapted methodology for evaluating the efficiency of mining investment projects. The aim is to justify a methodological framework that combines discounted cash flow analysis (NPV, IRR, DPP, PI), sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis with an original integral scoring of the project's investment attractiveness. The methods used included a comparative analysis of six evaluation criteria; a model DCF example for three deposit types, i.e. large high-grade, medium-grade, and low-grade in a remote location; single-factor NPV sensitivity analyses for six factors; an assessment of the effect of the governmental support measures, i.e. profit-tax privileges, mineral extraction tax holidays, Agreement on protection and promotion of capital investment; and a risk matrix. The results are based on the authors' calculations: the NPVs for the three types are RUB 62.5 bn, 20.4 bn and 0.7 bn; the IRR – 25.0%, 21.9% and 16.7%; the DPP – 8.1, 9.7 and 13.9 years; the integral attractiveness index – 81.0, 69.9 and 52.7 points. The sensitivity analysis revealed a dominance of the sales price (the NPV spread RUB 47.3 bn at ±25%) and the discount rate (RUB 25.8 bn); the base project's scenario spread ranged from − 10.2 to +47.3 bn. A combination of the governmental support measures for the marginal project increases the NPV nine-fold (to RUB 6.8 bn), the IRR by 2.8 pp, and shortens the DPP by 4.8 years. Ranking of the three project types by the integral index is robust to variation in the criteria weights within ±0.05. The proposed integral model is applicable for screening and prioritising mining projects when designing investment programmes and allocating governmental support.

Keywords: efficiency assessment, investment project, subsoil use, solid mineral deposit, net present value, NPV, IRR, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, geological and economic risks, governmental support measures, integral scoring

For citation: Matchinov Vitaly A., Moiseeva Irina G., Gubernatorova Natalia N., Drobysheva Irina V., Orlovtseva Oksana M. Assessment of the economic efficiency of investment projects for the development of solid mineral deposits. Mining Industry Journal (Gornaya Promyshlennost). 2026;(5):190–199. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-5-190-199

Article info

Received: 19.06.2026

Revised: 22.07.2026

Accepted: 27.07.2026

Authors info

Matchinov Vitaly A. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of Accounting and Management, Director, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Kaluga Branch, Kaluga, Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Moiseeva Irina G. – Cand. Sci. (Psychol.), Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Deputy Director for Research, Finance and Humanities, Financial University under the Govern- ment of the Russian Federation, Kaluga Branch, Kaluga, Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Gubernatorova Natalia N. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Department of Accounting and Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Kaluga Branch, Kaluga, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-6360; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Drobysheva Irina V. – Dr. Sci. (Educ.), Head of the Department of Business Informatics and Higher Mathematics, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Kaluga Branch, Kaluga, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4260-8634; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Orlovtseva Oksana M. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Depart- ment of Economics, Finance and Humanities, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Kaluga Branch, Kaluga, Russian Federation; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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