Econometric modeling of financial risks and credit space of small and medium-size mining businesses
Natalya A. Cherepovskaya, Angela B. Mottaeva, Elena S. Yakushova, Marina Yu. Aleynikova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Mining Industry Journal (Gornaya Promyshlennost) №5/ 2026 p. 99-106
Summary: In current conditions of high volatility of the global commodity markets, increasing uncertainty and stricter requirements for financial stability of companies, the task of assessing the financial risks and credit space of small and mediumsize companies operating in the mining industry is becoming particularly relevant. The article is dedicated to an empirical study of the financial risk factors and credit space of small and medium-size mining businesses. The study formed a dedicated industry sampling of 9,901 companies and applied a comprehensive econometric approach that takes into account statistical financial indicators and dynamic changes in revenues, assets and profits. The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant balance sheet, operational and dynamic factors that determine the level of financial risks and the probability of the company’s shifting into the high-risk category. The results show that negative equity remains the dominant risk factor for the small and medium-size mining businesses: in the basic financial risk index model their coefficient is 38.816 points, and in the high-risk logit model, the odds ratio is 15.561. The dynamic variables have a more accurate interpretation, i.e. in the working capital model the revenue growth is associated with an increase in the financial risk index, whereas the profit growth statistically reduces the risks. This means that it is not the expansion itself that is important for mining companies, but the quality of the growth, as the sales growth without profitability and payment margin can be accompanied by an increased financial stress.
Keywords: financial risk, credit space, mining industry, working capital, return on assets, financial risk index, financial stability, logit model
For citation: Cherepovskaya Natalya A., Mottaeva Angela B., Yakushova Elena S., Aleynikova Marina Yu. Econometric modeling of financial risks and credit space of small and medium-size mining businesses. Mining Industry Journal (Gornaya Promyshlennost). 2026;(5):99–106. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-5-99-106
Article info
Received: 05.06.2026
Revised: 16.07.2026
Accepted: 22.07.2026
Authors info
Cherepovskaya Natalya A. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3828-2536; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Mottaeva Angela B. – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Department of Strategic and Innovative Development, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8904-4154; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Yakushova Elena S. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of Strategic and Innovation Development, Higher School of Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4967-2081; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Aleynikova Marina Yu. – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5810-3123; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
References
1. Prudnikova A.A. The International Economic Decarbonization Agenda: Russia’s View and Response. Economics, Taxes & Law. 2025;18(2):129–137. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2025-18-2-129-137
2. Krupnov Y.A., Silvestrov S.N. Technological sovereignty and diffusion of technologies. Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2024;(2):31–48. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2024_2_31_48
3. Budkina E.S., Grishchenko Yu.I., Grishchenko A.V. An economic analysis of the national mining strategies for rare earth metals in conditions of the global deficit for critical minerals. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(2):222–229. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-2-222-229
4. Prokofiev S.E., Panina O.V., Krasyukova N.L., Eremin S.G., Butova T.V. Application of convolutional neural networks for hyperspectral classification of copper-nickel ores in Arctic conditions. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(1):114–121. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-1-114-121
5. Komarnitskaya A.N., Sokolov I.A., Solyannikova S.P. Budgetary Sustainability as the basis of a country’s financial sovereignty. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2026;30(2):6–19. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-2-6-19
6. Ruchkina G.F. Circulation regulation of digital finance as an important component of economic and technological sovereignty of Russia. Banking Law. 2024;(3):7–15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18572/1812-3945-2024-3-7-15
7. Bondarenko M.P., Popadyuk T.G., Skripnik O.B., Borisova O.V. Project financing for development of solid mineral deposits under tightening bank lending requirements. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(2):161–168. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-2-161-168
8. Panina O.V., Popadyuk N.K., Eremin S.G., Tokmurzin T.M., Razumova E.V. Application of the BigData technologies to optimize production processes in the Russian mining industry: analysis of implementation and efficiency. Russian Mining Industry . 2024;(6):178–185. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2024-6-178-185
9. Fedotova M.A., Pogodina T.V., Karpova S.V. Assessment of trends and prospects for the development of the Russian economy in the context of sanctions pressure. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2025;29(1):6–19. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-1-6-19
10. Karpova S.V., Pogodina T.V., Prikhodko L.V. Development of marketing methods as a factor in improving companies’ financial condition. Finance: Theory and Practice . 2026;30(3):181–194. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-3-181-194
11. Grishchenko Yu.I., Grishchenko A.V. Methodological aspects of assessing the development of small and medium enterprises in BRICS countries. Economics, Taxes & Law. 2026;19(3):118–131. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2026-19-3-118-131
12. Shumskaya E.I., Panina O.V., Eremin S.G., Krasyukova N.L., Butova T.V. Assessing the efficiency of radar monitoring of pit slope stability in Kuzbass coal mines. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(3):79–87. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-3-79-87
13. Kuchkovskaya N.V. Economic efficiency of digital transformation of mining companies in conditions of technological modernization and Industry 4.0 solutions. Russian Mining Industry. 2025;(6):88–96. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2025-6-88-96
14. Cherepovskaya N.A., Khudoyan A.K. Assessment of the cross-industry impact of the metallurgical sector on the financial results of mining companies under sanctions. Russian Mining Industry. 2026;(2):230–234. https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-2-230-234
