On Implementation of Expert Statistical Method in Assessment of Accident and Failure Probability for Mixing and Charging Machines

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2020-4-86-91

Morozova T.S. AZOTTECH LLC, Moscow, Russian Federation Russian Mining Industry №4 / 2020 стр. 86-91

Abstract: Designing of mixing and charging machines implies a set of tasks including risk analysis and calculation of failure and accident probability to ensure safe operation and durability of the product throughout its life cycle. The expert statistical method to assess the probability of accidents and failures helps to proactively identify the means to protect and control the bot-tlenecks in explosive blending using mixing and charging machines. The article presents an algorithm to calculate the probability of accidents and failures depending on the accumulated production volumes of the explosive and the type of failure. This approach was used to estimate the probability of failures, breakdowns and accidents of the company’s mixing and charging machines that had been in operation for a decade. The key factors that affect the failure of equipment have been identified, and an analysis of failure rates was performed that takes into account the changes in the way this or that defect is manifested. The paper also describes basic scenarios of failure and accident occurrences as well as methods of their elimination.

Keywords: explosive, mixing and charging machine, risk assessment, risk analysis, probability of failure, failure, accident, breakdown, expert statistical method, failure rate, service maintenance, quality of raw materials

For citation: Morozova T.S. On Implementation of Expert Statistical Method in Assessment of Accident and Failure Probability for Mixing and Charging Machines. Gornaya promyshlennost = Russian Mining Industry. 2020;(4):86–91. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.30686/16099192-2020-4-86-91.

Article info

Received: 23.07.2020

Revised: 29.07.2020

Accepted: 31.07.2020

Information about the author

Tatyana S. Morozova – Technical Writer, AZOTTECH LLC, Moscow, Russian Federation, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

References

1. AZOTTECH LLC: Cost of Ownership Assessment for Mixing and Charging Equipment. Gornaya promyshlennost = Russian Mining Industry. 2019;(5):82–84. (In Russ.) Available at: https://mining-media.ru/ru/article/burovoe/15187-ooo-azottekh-otsenka-stoimostivladeniya-smesitelno-zaryadnoj-tekhnikoj

2. Dudnik G.A., Radkov V.V., Tikhonov V.A. Mixing and charging car with the universal bunker emulsion matrix. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2012;(S2):228–234. (In Russ.) Available at: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=21571760

3. Kvaginidze V.S., Petrov V.F., Koretskii V.B. Operation of Open-Pit Equipment. Moscow: Mir gornoi knigi; 2007. (In Russ.)

4. Due-Hansen M.E., Dullum O. Review and analysis of explosion accident in Drevja, Norway: A consequence of fire in a mobile explosives manufacturing unit (MEMU) carrying precursors for the on-site production of bulk explosives. Safety Science. 2017;96:33–40. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2017.03.003.

5. Klimov A.M., Bryankin K.V. Reliability of Process Equipment. 2nd ed. Tambov: Tambov State Technical University, 2008. (In Russ.) Available at: https://tstu.ru/book/elib/pdf/2008/klimov-l.pdf

6. Kobzar A.I. Applied Mathematical Statistics. For Engineers and Researchers. Moscow: FIZMATLIT; 2006. (In Russ.)